Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at Cardart RDO Store Champs
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.9%
avg ELO -12.6 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1257
· median 1257
· range 1257–1257
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1274
Q3 1485
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
